In the week where nurses and paramedics have been out on strike and press coverage today suggests that the public is rapidly losing confidence in the ability of local NHS services to deliver, this essay that I wrote as part of my postgraduate course seems relevant. It is deliberately provocative in parts, and I don’t necessarily believe that the NHS is lost, but it is nonetheless the case that if we want to retain a comprehensive, universal service free at the point of delivery, then we need an urgent and grown-up conversation about what that means in terms of how much it costs and how we pay for it. What must now be clear is that we can’t carry on as we are.
Introduction
COVID-19 has acted as a stress test on the National Health Service in England, and the results of that test call into question the extent to which the principles on which the NHS was founded are appropriate or achievable in a post-COVID world. In this essay, I will argue that governments since the launch of the NHS have failed to adequately and robustly review the principles underpinning its operation. Those principles are now an anachronism, inappropriate and unachievable in the context of today’s NHS in England, and – worse – acting as a barrier to discussions about more appropriate and achievable alternatives. In concluding, I argue that what we are seeing in terms of public confidence in NHS England is an example of a “trust thermocline”[1] – a neat label for the phenomenon where stakeholders suddenly lose faith in a product or service.
The founding principles of the NHS
The founding principles of the NHS were contained in the NHS Act 1946 ss.1(1) and 1(2). On the sixtieth anniversary of the NHS, Tony Delamothe[2] condensed the provisions of the Act into a description of the service as “universal, equitable, comprehensive, high quality, free at the point of delivery, [and] centrally funded.” Rudolf Klein[3] acknowledges the work of people like Beatrice Webb, David Lloyd-George, and William Beveridge in paving the way for Aneurin Bevan’s NHS Act. The creation of “the first health system in any Western society to offer free medical care to the entire population”[4] was a radical and audacious act. But it was also very much of its time: “The 1948 model accurately mirrored a society strong on collectivism, reconciled to scarcity and with a firm faith in the technocratic rationality of planning.”[5] In Klein’s Preface to the 2010 edition of his book, he notes that: “The values that inspired the founding fathers, and shaped the NHS in the first place, still drive the service and command support across the political spectrum.” However, Klein’s analysis of the historical development of the NHS makes clear the compromises and concessions that were instrumental in gaining political and professional medical support for the 1946 Act. Those compromises and concessions were the hairline cracks in the underpinning foundations of the NHS that have widened into fatal weaknesses in 2022. In developing this argument, I will consider how services are delivered (universality and comprehensiveness); how well the services are delivered (equity and quality); and how services are funded (free at the point of delivery and central funding).
How the NHS is delivered : comprehensive and universal?
Klein describes healthcare services in England prior to 1946 as “an inadequate, partial and muddled patchwork.”[6] 70 years after the founding of the NHS, Chand and Pollock characterised services as “fragmented, undermined and decimated.”[7] On the face of it, the NHS is failing in its claims to provide “a comprehensive service, available to all”,[8] and the Secretary of State is in breach of the duty to “continue the promotion in England of a comprehensive health service”.[9] Despite Bevan’s wish for a NHS delivering “a uniform standard for all”[10] and avoiding the risks of “a better service in the richer areas, a worse service in the poorer”,[11] NHS delivery was never comprehensive or universal. Julian Tudor Hart’s work[12] documenting the inverse care law in the 1960s, and recent coverage of public dissatisfaction with access to GP appointments and the fact that more affluent areas have twice as many doctors per as more deprived communities,[13] adds to the sense that comprehensive and universal services has always been aspirational rather than within achievable grasp. This is recognised in the work of Haycox[14] who – as part of his guide to health economics – states: “It is universally acknowledged that the technical ability of healthcare systems to provide care… far exceeds the ability of any healthcare system to afford all such technologies.” Healthcare rationing[15] is present to varying degrees in all forms of healthcare system, and theories such as Accounting for Reasonableness[16] seek to identify the criteria that help secure public acceptance of decisions regarding prioritisation of some treatments over others.
How well are services delivered : equity and quality?
Improving population health is an example of a “wicked problem”[17] – it is complex, multi-causal, and requires inter-sectoral action over an extended time frame. Ilona Kickbusch and Kevin Buckett[18] make the case for a Health in All Policies (HiAP) approach as an essential response to the increasing demands of chronic ill-health on healthcare systems. Drawing on the work of Michael Marmot,[19] HiAP advocates argue that upstream “causes of the causes”[20] of ill-health need to be addressed as part of an integrated approach to maximising the well-being capability[21] of populations. Reflecting on the challenge for UK healthcare following COVID-19, Liz Green et al[22] conclude that the pandemic, climate change and Brexit “act synergistically and cumulatively, creating a huge ‘triple challenge’.” Marmot’s social gradient[23] of health clearly demonstrates that those facing disadvantage linked to upbringing, education, employment, housing conditions, age, or disability are much more likely to experience poor outcomes in terms of both morbidity and mortality. That inequity has been amplified through COVID-19.[24]
Nor is it the case that the NHS in England offers significantly better quality in terms of outcomes than other healthcare systems. Mark Dayan et al[25] note that whilst the NHS attracts a share of GDP comparable to systems in many other countries, it is relatively poorly served in terms of clinical staffing and diagnostic equipment and it “does not have especially good outcomes relative to other wealthy countries.”[26] Nagendran et al[27] compared NHS Trust financial performance and clinical performance between 2011 and 2016 and concluded that “operating margins [£] have progressively worsened… and that this change correlates with poorer… performance on a range of widely benchmarked process measures…” [and] “even the best financially performing Trusts are struggling to manage demand.”[28]
How services are funded (free at the point of delivery and central funding)
Whilst the NHS in England remains “the archetype of a publicly funded health system… predominantly funded from taxation and… available to every resident”[29] it is nevertheless true that some services (dispensing of prescription medication, dental care, and dispensing of spectacles) have been subject to user-charges since as early as 1950. The Health and Social Care Act 2012 s.1(4) qualifies the stipulation that NHS services must be free of charge “except in so far as the making and recovery of charges is expressly provided for” in any other legislation. Chand and Pollock[30] highlight the new charging regimes that now apply to immigrants, asylum-seekers, and refugees; and Dayan et al[31] highlight the difficulties faced by an increasing number of older people in securing funding support for residential care or activities of daily living. It is widely recognised that NHS funding has been significantly reduced in real terms consistently since 2010[32] and it seems clear that this will continue for the foreseeable future.[33]
So what does this mean for the future of the NHS in England?
Chand and Pollock[34] appeal for the restoration of “the founding principles of the NHS” in their 2018 blogpost. It is with some regret that I conclude that this is no longer realistic. Those founding principles were of their time mirroring “a society strong on collectivism, reconciled to scarcity and with a firm faith in the technocratic rationality of planning.”[35] The 2021 British Social Attitudes survey[36] recorded the largest decline in public satisfaction with the NHS since it was first conducted in 1985. Waiting times to see a GP and/or for elective treatment, lack of staff, and insufficient spending on the NHS were cited as the main reasons for dissatisfaction. However, there was only limited support for increasing taxes to spend more on the NHS, and only 54% chose ‘definitely’ when asked if the NHS should primarily be funded through taxation. It is arguably the case that the NHS is past the point of no return on the Trust Thermocline.[37]
It is said that Nigel Lawson once described the NHS as the nearest thing the English have to a religion.[38] The founding principles of the NHS have assumed a status akin to religious texts, but that status has prevented meaningful discussions around other ways of organising (e.g. adjusting the mix of public and private provision[39]), funding (e.g. social insurance[40]), and delivering (e.g. Integrated Clinical Care[41]) healthcare services in England. Even where approaches similar to HiAP are being promoted, it is noticeable that separate guidance has been produced for local authorities[42] and NHS bodies[43], suggesting that the paradigm shift in policy making implicit in HiAP is not fully appreciated. The founding principles of the NHS set out in 1948 are no longer appropriate or achievable because they were never appropriate or achievable. It’s now time to start a new conversation about the governance, organisation and delivery of a new form of health and social care for a post COVID-19 England.
[1] Initially identified as an emerging theoretical construct around the sudden loss of customer satisfaction in service industries in a Twitter thread and then presented as a blogpost here : The Trust Thermocline : fuseboxgames (reddit.com)
[2] Tony Delamothe – “Founding Principles”, BMJ Volume 336, 31st May 2008
[3] Rudolf Klein – “The New Politics of the NHS: From Creation to Reinvention”, Radcliffe Publishing, Oxford 2010 p.1
[4] Ibid. p.2
[5] Ibid. Preface
[6] Rudolf Klein – “The New Politics of the NHS: From Creation to Reinvention”, Radcliffe Publishing, Oxford 2010 p.1
[7] Kailash Chand and Allyson Pollock – “The NHS Doesn’t Require Reform – it Needs a Revolution”, The Political Quarterly blogpost The NHS Doesn’t Require Reform – it Needs a Revolution | Political Quarterly
[8] The NHS Constitution Principle 1 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-nhs-constitution-for-england/the-nhs-constitution-for-england
[9] National Health Service Act 2006 s.1
[10] Rudolf Klein – “The New Politics of the NHS: From Creation to Reinvention”, Radcliffe Publishing, Oxford 2010 p.14
[11] Ibid.
[12] Julian Tudor Hart – “The Inverse Care Law”, The Lancet v297 n7696 (1971) pp.405-412
[13] https://inews.co.uk/news/health/gp-surgery-postcode-lottery-england-patients-doctors-figures-worst-areas-1242390
[14] Alan Haycox – “What is health economics?” Hayward Medical Communications 2009
[15] Richard Cookson and Paul Dolan Principles of Justice in Healthcare Rationing : Journal of Medical Ethics 2000:26 pp.323-329
[16] Norman Daniels – Accountability for Reasonableness BMJ Volume 321 November 2000 p.1300
[17] Ilona Kickbusch and Kevin Buckett – Implementing Health In All Policies (Adelaide: Government of South Australia 2010)
[18] Ibid.
[19] Michael Marmot, “Fair society, healthy lives : the Marmot review ; strategic review of health inequalities in England”, London 2010
[20] Sridhar Venkatapuram, ‘Global Justice and the Social Determinants of Health’ 2010 Ethics and International Affairs 24:2 pp.119-130
[21] Amartya Sen, ‘What Do We Want from a Theory of Justice?’ 2006 The Journal of Philosophy 103:5 pp.215-238
[22] Liz Green, Kathryn Ashton, Mark Bellis et al – Health in All Policies – a key driver for health and wellbeing in a post covid-19 pandemic world Int Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2021 18 9468
[23] Michael Marmot, “Fair society, healthy lives : the Marmot review ; strategic review of health inequalities in England”, London 2010
[24] Bo Burstrom and WenjingTao : “Social determinants of health and inequalities in Covid-19” – European Journal of Public Health 2020 30:4 pp.617-618
[25] Mark Dayan et al : “How good is the NHS?” The Health Foundation 2018 The NHS at 70: How good is the NHS? (kingsfund.org.uk)
[26] Ibid.
[27] Myura Nagendran, Grace Kiew, Rosalind Raine, Rifat Atun, Mahibon Maruthappu – Financial Performance of English NHS Trusts and variation in clinical outcomes: a longistudinal observational study, BMJ Open 2019:9 doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2018-021854
[28] Ibid. p.9
[29] Robert Blank and Viola Burau – Comparative Health Policy 2013 Palgrave Macmillan ch.3
[30] Kailash Chand and Allyson Pollock – “The NHS Doesn’t Require Reform – it Needs a Revolution”, The Political Quarterly blogpost The NHS Doesn’t Require Reform – it Needs a Revolution | Political Quarterly
[31] Mark Dayan et al : “How good is the NHS?” (published 2018)
[32] Caroline Molloy – “Jeremy Hunt: New chancellor is the man who ruined the NHS – openDemocracy blogpost 8th July 2022 Jeremy Hunt: How new chancellor ruined the NHS | openDemocracy
[33] Jeremy Hunt: Everyone will have to pay more tax – BBC News
[34] Kailash Chand and Allyson Pollock – “The NHS Doesn’t Require Reform – it Needs a Revolution”, The Political Quarterly blogpost The NHS Doesn’t Require Reform – it Needs a Revolution | Political Quarterly
[35] Rudolf Klein – “The New Politics of the NHS: From Creation to Reinvention”, Radcliffe Publishing, Oxford [2010] Preface
[36] Dan Wellings, Danielle Jefferies, David Maguire et al, Public satisfaction with the NHS and social care in 2021: Results from the British Social Attitudes survey 8th March 2022 The King’s Fund Public satisfaction with the NHS and social care in 2021 | The King’s Fund (kingsfund.org.uk)
[37] The Trust Thermocline : fuseboxgames (reddit.com)
[38] Attributed to former Conservative Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson
[39] Robert Blank and Viola Burau – Comparative Health Policy 2013 Palgrave Macmillan ch.3
[40] Helen McKenna, Phoebe Dunn, Emily Northern and Tom Buckley – How health care is funded, The King’s Fund 2017 How health care is funded | The King’s Fund (kingsfund.org.uk)
[41] Jonathan Erskine, Michele Costelli, David Hunter et al – “The persistent problem of integrated care in English NHS hospitals: Is the Mayo Model the answer? 2018:32:4 Journal of Health Organisation and Management p.532
[42] Local Government Association – Health in All Policies: a Manual for Local Government 2016 Health in all policies: a manual for local government | Local Government Association
[43] NHS England 2022 https://www.england.nhs.uk/get-involved/involvementguidance/